U.S. Recession Likely to End Late 2020 or 2021, NABE Survey Says

(C) Bloomberg. A person rides a bicycle near an empty street in downtown Brownsville, Texas, U.S., on Thursday, July 30, 2020. The Rio Grande Valley, a four-county region that stretches across Texas’s southernmost tip, remains one of America’s most afflicted areas, with the highest hospitalization rates, deaths at more than twice the state average, overwhelmed hospitals and refrigerated trucks serving as back-up morgues. Photographer: Callaghan O’Hare/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy will emerge from the recession in the second half of this year or at some point in 2021, and a majority of economists said Congress needs to extend supplemental aid, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.

Two-thirds of panelists said the economy is still in the recession that started in February, while nearly 80% indicated that there is at least a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession. The NABE survey summarizes the responses of 235 members and was conducted between late July and early August.

A majority of panelists said they believe Congress should extend supplemental unemployment insurance and the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses, with 22% indicating that the next fiscal package should be $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.

After Congress failed to agree on a new stimulus package, letting the extra $600 a week in unemployment assistance expire, President Donald Trump announced in early August that he would redirect disaster-relief funds to provide federal aid to the unemployed by executive action.

While 40% of respondents rate the fiscal response by Congress as “insufficient,” 37% said it’s “adequate.” At the same time, more than 75% of panelists said the Federal Reserve monetary policy is currently “about right,” the strongest approval in more than 13 years.

(C)2020 Bloomberg L.P.